OK, the rumor mill on the upcoming (for 5 years now) Apple Tablet device is kicking into high gear. High-enough gear that it’s becoming more and more likely that people are right and a tablet-like device is finally coming from Apple.So, what’s it going to be? Rumors are settling about with a 7″ or 10″ device. For simplisity’s sake, let’s think of these two form factors as ‘the paperback’ and ‘the magazine’ because those sizes are relatively close to the dead-tree media labels, at least in size.
There’s a lot of assumptions about what these devices will and will not offer and I can tell you now, most people are wrong. I don’t base this on any insider knowledge, simply on past-history. Most people were wrong about the iPhone, most people were wrong about the iPod. Most people are wrong about the iSlate/Apple table/Whatever.
If Apple releases a tablet device this month as is appearing more and more likely, I would not at all be surprised to see two devices come out, in the above sizes. What will they do? Well, in short they will do everything, but yet they will do less that some people want. They will have wifi, obviously, but not 802.11n. They will be book readers, and they will play video, but not 1080p. I would not be at all surprised to see these devices have some storage expansion, but knowing Apple, I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t either.
The Paperback with a 7″ screen will have some silly and somewhat arbitrary limitation that makes the Magazine more attractive. Like no support for BlueTooth keyboards, or no 720p (though this would really surprise me).
Both devices will be connected to the iTunes store in some very integrated way. They will use a modified version of the iPhone OS and most iPhone apps will work, albeit with some limitations. However, they will also support their own applications. Applications will still be available only through Apple’s medieval approval process and, at least initially, no apps from other sources will be allowed.
How will it be marketed? I suspect that it will be marketed as a super iPod book reader magazine reader newspaper reader video watcher commuter device. It will likely come with subscriptions to a lot of content, like maybe the New York Times automatically downloaded and locally cached every day?
However, I suspect these devices will eventually lead to a much looser and more open AppStore. Hey, I can dare to dream, can’t I?
What it likely won’t have is 3G, initially. Nor will it allow you to integrate your iPhone or iPod touch with it as a larger or extended display. In fact, you won’t be able to use the display with any other device, which will cause much gnashing of teeth. It also will be widely written up for its so-called failures or critical missing features which are of no importance to anyone but the pundit writing the review. it will not be immediately obvious if the device will succeed or not. It will be too much or not enough, and seem to live in some middle ground where no one is sure there’s a market.
It will not be a kindle killer, or an anything-killer, at least not on first blush. It will be doomed to failure, a niche device without a niche. Just like the iPhone before it. The Mac Mini. The iPod. The iMac.